Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol: the Fight Site preview
LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 25: Artur Beterbiev (left) and Dmitry Bivol ( right) at the end of a press conference on September 25, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing/Getty Images)
Another boxing superfight finally makes it to the ring this weekend, as Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol settle up. We’ll find out which of the two gets to call himself the greatest light-heavyweight of this generation, and claim the undisputed divisional crown. It’s also just a fun clash of styles, with Beterbiev’s legendary destructive power coming up against Bivol’s smooth technique. We’ve been waiting for this for a while, and now, after a delay caused by a knee injury to Beterbiev earlier in the year, it’s here.
A quick note from me: I wish I’d been writing more about boxing in the last few months, there’s been good stuff on- but life can get in the way. This preview won’t be the full card writeup I wanted to do, but I had to get something out, it’s too good not to. Whoever reads this, enjoy, and I hope the break isn’t as long next time.
A note of caution
One thing needs to be got out of the way first: this being competitive depends on Beterbiev’s recovery from that injury. Knee problems can be career-ending for boxers, and at 39 years of age Beterbiev’s recovery will not be what it once was. Five months is not a lot of recovery time, so it’s possible that Beterbiev will be coming in to this fight compromised.
Of course, there are levels to that- all aging sportsmen are compromised to one level or another, and Beterbiev is not Sergio Martinez, so we won’t be treated to the sad spectacle of a boxer trying to engage in a high-movement explosive game on a knee that won’t support it. It’s possible his movement is affected to some degree but he can still bring much of his usual game to bear. We’ll see, but it is just something to bear in mind. Hopefully not, but…
Anyway, let’s assume both fighters will be at their best, and get on to the good stuff.
So, Beterbiev the destroyer, and Bivol the technician. Both obviously true, and yet somewhat misleading. Not on Bivol’s side- he very definitely is a technician, a fighter who is athletically perfectly fine but whose game rests on precision, timing and skill. We’ll get onto his gameplan and chances in a bit.
What does Beterbiev need to do?
No, it’s Beterbiev the destroyer that’s a bit unfair. Well, not exactly unfair- his KO rate is 100% and his punching power legendary. He definitely destroys his opponents. But the narrative around him sometimes makes it seem like he’s just a slugger, a guy who can wander forward and thump his opponents and doesn’t need much else. This, of course, is almost never true of the really great power punchers, and it isn’t here- though his somewhat stiff movement style and occasionally leaky defence don’t help the impression.
So, what are the strengths I’m obviously getting at, technically? Well, the first is his punch variety and selection. Beterbiev doesn’t just hit hard - he has a huge range of shots he can throw, and is excellent at picking the right one for the right movement. His beatdown of Gvozdyk back in 2019 was a great example of this- Gvozdyk has a pretty good defence in both movement and a solid guard, and Beterbiev spent the fight snaking and sneaking shots through and around that guard, and intercepting his lateral movement as he tried to circle away.
He also disguises those punches very well, so an opponent adjusting defence for one angle of attack will find themselves blasted from another. Add to that, although it might not look like it, Beterbiev is adept at throwaway shots, using one shot not intended to land to set up another that is. The reason this can be deceptive is that every shot he throws is hurtful, so even something landing on the guard can look like it was meant to connect- but he is, often, making space for his next one by using that quality.
The movement also highlighted the other big strength - his movement. Okay, this one is a bit more of a mixed bag and we’ll get onto some of the downsides in a second, but positionally, Beterbiev is excellent. Gvozdyk, and all his other opponents, find it very difficult to keep Beterbiev out of their space. If their aim is to keep away, he’s very good at cutting the space and closing that range, and if an opponent wants to come at him and fight him off that way, he has a knack for timing that can leave them attacking air, allowing him to return fire.
And even if an opponent measures the space right and gets a shot off first, in those instances his defence is usually pretty solid. He’s good at catch-and-counters off a solid high guard, so it’s a tough thing to do to take the lead on him.
The other factor to deal with is that he’s not just skilled but very aware in the ring and cool under fire. Even when he is caught out and an opponent finds success, it’s tough to sustain it. His win over Yarde showcases this - although Beterbiev was for the most part in the ascendancy, he did find it difficult initially to close the show as he wanted. When he hurt the Brit and came directly at him, he found himself countered in turn, and although not badly hurt he clearly felt the shots. So instead of risking more damage, he switched up the tactic, started dropping to the corners to bait Yarde in and then spinning him into them to deliver the damage. The contrast to Yarde himself, who performed admirably in that fight but ultimately never spotted the danger and the bait he was biting on every time, was marked.
Where does Beterbiev need to be careful?
So, what are the weaknesses? The first thing is the aforementioned mixed bag in the movement. While the positioning is great, he does sometimes sacrifice correct form to get there, and that can leave him off-balance. It doesn’t affect the quality of his attack much, because, again, whatever he lands is hurtful, even if he’s not fully set- but defensively it can leave him vulnerable.
Meanwhile, almost the opposite applies to his guard. He’s good at using it as he approaches, but after he throws, he can get sloppy at bringing it back, to cover either head or body. This means that if an opponent can either live with the barrage, or make him miss, there are openings. Yarde showed some of this, finding Beterbiev when he himself was at his most hurt, and further back, Callum Johnson dropped him while exchanging.
While those two flaws come from almost opposite sides, so to speak, they can meet in the middle- if Beterbiev comes in off balance or square, throws, and then gets sloppy bringing the guard back, that’s when he’s at his most vulnerable. There are very few opponents with the ability to properly punish that, but if there’s one, it’s Bivol.
What does Bivol need to do?
Why, since he’s nowhere near the hardest puncher Beterbiev has faced? Well, timing is everything. Callum Smith has a brutal counterpunch when he can get it going, but against Beterbiev he found his timing outmatched and all his openings squashed. Bivol has no punch as dangerous as Smith’s long left hook, but timing is his bread and butter, aided and abetted by an in-and-out movement that really screws with his opponent’s rhythm.
With that in his pocket, he’ll be looking to bait those potential vulnerabilities- leave Beterbiev swinging, then step in and catch him out. It’ll take iron focus, precision, and calculated risks- the vulnerability doesn’t last long, so he’ll have to be in the fire and making him miss by inches to get it done. But if anyone’s capable, it’s him.
His jab will help. Beterbiev’s own is perfectly good, used to set up attacks and hurtful in its own right. But he doesn’t use it to control the tempo or positioning of a fight the way some other destroyers (think Golovkin or Kovalev or Klitschko) might. Bivol, on the other hand, is all about that, and if he can get it working, he’ll control the center line and the space between them, making Beterbiev’s job in approaching him much, much harder.
And even if he doesn’t score knockdowns or KOs, well, we’ve already seen against Canelo that precise-but-limited footwork can be undone by his mastery of timing. Alvarez’ footwork, up till that point, had become extremely measured, not the fastest but taking Canelo exactly where he needed. Bivol took that apart, drawing up long-buried flaws and keeping him off-balance with regularity. Beterbiev’s mistakes aren’t even that well-buried, so Bivol will definitely be looking to frustrate him.
Where does Bivol need to be careful?
So, where are his weaknesses? In this fight, probably two big ones: one more general, and one Beterbiev-specific. Let’s take the general first, because it does somewhat set up the second. Bear in mind, neither of these are huge flaws in his game, most opponents wouldn’t have a chance to even find them: but they’re things that, in this specific context, could come back to bite him.
The first is that, for all the brilliance of his movement, he can sometimes be a little straight-lined. It’s not that he can’t move laterally- he obviously can and does, but the in-and-out is his main aim, and sometimes he can get a little too focused on it. Leave just a bit too much time between stepping in and circling, or dropping back to the ropes when he could have circled earlier.
Mostly this doesn’t come up because his guard and general defensive reflexes are so good. If he does get caught in those positions, well, he’ll just take a few shots on that guard, even make it his advantage by catch-and-countering. He did that to Canelo a fair amount, and it’s something he’s very good at.
The thing is though: this is Beterbiev. Catching shots on the guard, no matter how sound, just doesn’t seem like a plan you can rely on. As keeps coming up in this preview, even the defended shots hurt- and this opens Bivol up to that attacking nous we talked about earlier, the ability to break a stance with a punch on the guard then punch through the resulting gap.
And this is where a big question mark comes into play. We know how Beterbiev deals with it when an opponent gets him uncomfortable- we’ve seen it a few times. He’s cool under pressure and he finds responses.
We don’t really know that above Bivol. Not that he’s never been tested, but no-one’s ever really broken his poise, or thrown anything at him that gets his defence out of shape. It could be that he reacts well, that this is where his legend is sealed- taking a nightmare opponents’ biggest shots and responding. Or he could break down. We won’t know till we know.
Prediction
Ultimately, it’s that question of the guard that makes me very slightly lean to Beterbiev. It’s possible Bivol can go the whole fight without that really coming up, but I think it’s unlikely. And if we do see situations where Bivol is defending with his guard, regularly- well, eventually he won’t be defending all that well. If I have to pick a winner, it’s Beterbiev by late KO. But it is a very difficult one to call, with reasons to go both ways.
The undercard
There’s a pretty solid undercard here, which I wish I could go into in depth. Apologies, but let’s at least highlight what to look out for:
Jai Opetaia defends his IBF cruiserweight title against Jack Massey. The Australian champion should have too much for his challenger, really, his excellent timing and accuracy probably taking him to victory. But Massey has some decent timing of his own and won’t be there to lie down.
Fabio Wardley’s heavyweight rematch with Frazer Clarke is probably the pick of the undercard. Their first fight back in March, for Wardley’s British title, was one of the fights of the year so far, a brutal back-and-forth affair that ended in a draw. I’m leaning Wardley here because for all his crude moments I think he has more easy fixes to find in his game than Clarke, a more polished but perhaps more limited fighter- but the worry is Wardley’s nose. It absolutely exploded in the first fight, ending pretty much spread all over his face- and seeing Warldey doing the press rounds it looks obviously damaged even now.
Now, that might just be appearance and it’s fine- but we already saw Nick Ball last week, a few months off a busted nose, start leaking again with no encouragement from Ronny Rios. Given that the injury clearly affected Wardley the first time, it’s one to bear in mind. Still, this should be a cracker.
Additionally, Skye Nicholson defends her WBC featherweigh title against Raven Chapman in a battle of two undefeated fighters. Chris Eubank Jr tries to make himself relevant again by fighting Kamil Szremeta, and Ben Whittaker continues to build into the pro game against Liam Cameron. Both of those should be wins for the A-side, but hey, both fighters are entertaining at least.
Even more boxing
A further note for anyone for whom that isn’t enough: this event is nowhere near the only boxing this weekend. Shivenathi Nontshinga fights Masamichi Yabuki for the IBF light flyweight title earlier on in the day- that might well have happened by the time you read this.
And then, on what will be Sunday and Monday late morning/early afternoon in Europe and early morning on the American side of things, Japanese boxing is giving us a truly stacked double header, featuring some of the most exciting fighters in the sport and seven title fights across two cards. I’m hoping to have some kind of preview out, but I really can’t promise anything- so keep an eye out for that. Sunday sees four title fights, including Kenshiro Teraji (my current favourite fighter to watch) moving up to flyweight to challenge for the vacant IBF title against Christopher Rosales, and Takuma Inoue defending his WBA bantamweight crown. Monday gives us Junto Nakatani defending his WBC belt at the weight, plus Anthony Olascuaga defending (WBO) against Jonathan Gonzalez at flyweight and Kosei Tanaka (also WBO) versus Phumelele Cafu at superfly. Additionally, Tenshin takes another step in his boxing career, against the unbeaten Gerwin Asilo.
So that’s that: a great fight and completely full weekend. Boxing fans are in for a treat. Enjoy.