Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega: The Fight Site Predictions
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
The immense talent in the UFC’s featherweight pool is undeniable, and yet it also largely serves to showcase a truly special top-2; there is a case to be made that the #1 and #2 pound-for-pounders are both at 145, leaving even the most talented contenders around (ones who would be title threats at any other division) seemingly irrelevant in comparison. In fact, the last time anyone was in position to disrupt these standings, a legitimate and dangerous top contender was put through a beating that shattered records and possibly his own career. The only featherweight who could stand up to Max Holloway proved to be Alexander Volkanovski — and their rematch established them as the 1A and 1B of perhaps the deepest division in the sport. “The Great” was certainly impressive during his title run, but the two five-round Holloway victories were on a different tier entirely — the sort of wins that even consensus all-time greats would struggle to match, and that as Volkanovski’s elite tenure had only just begun.
However, at UFC 266, it isn’t a foregone conclusion that Volkanovski will come away with a 20th straight win — as his opponent is one of the most consistently dangerous finishers in the sport. Brian Ortega had his own crack at Holloway in late 2018 for the featherweight championship, and it went about as badly as possible — but after almost two years on the shelf, Ortega defied expectations with a dominant 5-round decision over Chan Sung Jung. Ortega’s October 2020 bout didn’t just get “T-City” back into the win column, but indicated to many that he had made wholesale improvements in every area — enough to put him in position for a second title shot in three fights, and one with fairly close odds on the books. If Ortega can find a way to overcome the challenge in front of him at UFC 266, he’ll have gotten one of the most impressive wins available to get in MMA at present — and a belt for his trouble.
The Fight Site’s MMA Team brings their predictions for how the main event on September 25th will go —whether they expect the clever Australian champion to continue a historic run, or that run to end at the hands of a man who only needs half an opening to leave with the title in tow.
Sriram Muralidaran: Much more interesting of a fight than the "Volkanovski>Holloway>Ortega" relationship entails, partially because (despite proving to be the better fighter, twice) Volkanovski is vulnerable in specific ways that Holloway never has been. Specifically, for a finish-oriented fighter such as Ortega - who's willing to lose a few minutes to funnel his opponent into a meaningful exchange - Holloway's absolutely absurd durability renders him hamstrung immediately; on the other hand, while Volkanovski seems just as immune to pace, the Holloway rematch showed that he isn't someone who can afford to not worry about margins. That gives Ortega a starting point, even if he's far less of a dedicated round-loser than he seems.
The advantage for Volkanovski, again in comparison to Holloway, is that he’s in a much better position to manage the margins that he does need to worry about. While his defense in a isolation often isn’t the most encouraging thing, Volkanovski’s true gift is his ability to dictate the rules of engagement for his opponent; he’s a tremendous ring general both on the front foot and the back foot, and he consistently builds on his safest leads to the point that his actual defense in the pocket often doesn’t end up mattering (even against the most voracious threats there, as seen in his last two bouts). He’s a terrifically versatile fighter for this reason; against Chad Mendes, Volkanovski’s jab and his lead-leg kicking game served to gain ground and cut the cage as Mendes looked to walk him into counters, where the swarming Holloway was held off by similar tools recontextualized as an outfighting gambit. I expect Volkanovski to try to outfight here, but if Ortega forces him to take the front foot, I expect him to thrive far more than the limited Chan Sung Jung (who alternated between pure reactivity and stance-breaking blitzes as Ortega drew him forward) - while Volkanovski isn’t as equipped to really push Ortega’s defense in layers and batter him for it the way that Holloway did, he’s definitely capable of working in shorter and safer trades to exploit similar openings in the American’s funky shoulder-rolling and high-guarding.
However, for all the minute-winning acumen that Volkanovski has, Ortega is smart in a different way - I don’t subscribe to the notion that his last fight was a particularly big improvement (more a step down in competition), but it did show without a doubt that Ortega is far more process-driven than he gets credit for. The best exhibit of that isn’t Jung, however, but Moicano - a fight where Ortega did lose the first two rounds against a very capable striker, but weaponized his pace and worked the body throughout to force an error. While I don’t expect Ortega’s (quite good and useful) jab to get much play against Volkanovski - as he shut down Holloway’s incredibly consistently, with his counters and his distancing - Ortega’s threat on the counter is an interesting dynamic for this one. For example, Ortega’s best responses tend to come on his opponent’s dips - he punished Guida for level-changing with the knee, and he has a consistently dangerous snapdown game - and Holloway had a specific response to Volkanovski’s proactive dip with the counter uppercut; Volkanovski is only going to allow tactical openings of this nature to show up once or twice before switching it up (as he did with Holloway, drawing it out and pivoting on the jab instead), but Ortega’s game hinges on needing minimal openings.
Ultimately, however, needing to find specific kinds of exchanges where Ortega can get things done spoils the pick on its own. Ortega has routes in exchanges but likely not a consistent way to get there, and the bigger-picture strategy likely falls into Volkanovski’s hands as a result - I expect it to be competitive, but not necessarily too close, especially as the fight progresses. Volkanovski by UD.
Dan Albert: To parse things, Volkanovski is perhaps the most strategically-inclined fighter in all of MMA, though his ability as a fighter is predicated quite a bit upon his ability to put things together. That is to say, how you should be looking at him is that he’s a case of “the sum is greater than its parts”. Individually, there are set issues in Volkanovski’s game, namely some of his defensive footwork (e.g. crossing his feet, some linear retreats) and ability to wage longer pocket exchanges. However, his consistent aptitude for recognizing what his opponents bring to him and how to create a process to maximize his successes means he’s not an easy task by any standard. You don’t play chess with Jose Aldo and Max Holloway and be able to beat them both if that was not the case. That said, I need to point out and reinforce why Brian Ortega should not be counted out here.
For one thing, Volkanovski’s game begins with his preparation for what he expects his opponents to do. Ortega doesn’t necessarily have significant depth, though he is opportunistic, observative, and unorthodox in ways that someone who may need process for strategy like Volkanovski may struggle to prepare for. For one thing, Ortega is a tactile learner in fights with fearless inclination for counters. Volkanovski mitigates risks and adapts to his own errors incredibly efficiently, though the rematch with Holloway showed that someone who thinks with him and can draw him into his weaker phases is capable of catching and hurting him consistently. I’ve said before that Volkanovski can shut his opponents down, though this does come with the caveat that he has to consistently work for it and possibly engage them - and engaging Brian Ortega, even if you’re Max Holloway, means you will have to take some back - in order to be “one step ahead”. The problem, ergo, is simple: Brian Ortega is one of the most lethal finishers in MMA once he catches his opponents in a margin of error, often via unorthodoxy and his ability to read and adapt to rhythm. In particular, Ortega excels at drawing responses through feints and feelers and then redirecting himself in positions to punish said responses. Alongside his obscene durability and grit, and you have someone who, despite concerns with his defense and toolbox, may be a bigger dog in this one than you’d think because I’m not sure Volkanovski has really fought someone -like- Ortega, whom being “one step ahead of” may be not well be the answer here. For example, Volkanovski’s blitzes will require some of the same mixups he used to get inside on Holloway in their rematch (fake into body hooks off slips/pivots) else he may get caught with more uppercuts - a favorite of T-City’s.
Looking at this fight holistically, it comes down to this: The divisional operator who excels at denying opponents as many chances as possible versus the divisional opportunist who will make the most of every chance he gets. I’m not too sure how this fight will look until it really plays out, but ringcraft is going to be the most important aspect. Ortega did get to demonstrate some improved patience and process versus Chan Sung Jung, though the latter still was able to get Ortega to the fence consistently without a lot of process. In my opinion, I don’t believe that Ortega’s chances depend upon being reactive here; I personally think he’ll need to force engagements and thinking from Volkanovski to create those moments. Again, I’m not sure what this fight is going to look like, though I expect to be tense and far more competitive than most think. That said, Volkanovski’s poise and grit in his last fight when taken out of comfort zone demands the highest of praise and his superior ringcraft and proven adaptations means he ought to be the likely favorite. There’s quite a bit more here that is being unsaid but this fight, at the very least, will tell us a lot about where both guys are - and I can’t wait to see it. Alexander Volkanovski via unanimous decision.
Ed Gallo: Given how confident I am in Alexander Volkanovski’s ability to essentially shut out Brian Ortega over five rounds, I am worryingly nervous. On one hand, Volkanovski has demonstrated the ability to limit damage and control exchanges and pace against some of the best and greatest fighters of all time. On the other hand - he has had some battles, was hurt multiple times vs. Max Holloway, and is coming back after a very scary bout with CoVid-19.
I weigh those factors differently depending on how Brian Ortega approaches this fight. Traditionally, we see him as a momentum-building pressure fighter, one who leverages his durability, cardio and power to send his opponents into a panic when they start to break down. Ortega is excellent at capitalizing on those mistakes and making the most of opportunities to snatch the neck or do damage. He doesn’t have any consistent, stand-out methods to make that happen proactively, it’s more that those opportunities arise organically more and more often as his pace builds and his opponent fades. After this approach resulted in a life-changing beating at the hands of Max Holloway, Ortega seems to have reassessed his style and came into the Korean Zombie fight with a style more focused on limiting damage while still playing into some of his gifts. He played much more on the outside, taking away his pace as a weapon in order to work on becoming a more intentional kicker and counter striker. Of course - you can be a counter striker and still lead, but that’s a lot of nuance to expect from someone in the midst of a big stylistic change. He didn’t blow me away in that fight, and I don’t love such a drastic change when the original style was definitely salvageable, but Ortega clearly improved.
Against Alexander Volkanovski, I believe he will look to make the champion lead, sticking with a similar approach to the Chan Sung Jung fight. He won’t do nearly as well in avoiding strikes, but it’s his best look if he wants to land big counters. For Ortega, this fight will be won in moments and lost in minutes. Alexander Volkanovski might be the most patient fighter in MMA right now, and I feel I can trust him to be okay with just landing his jab and cutting a combination short if he feels he’s chasing or overreaching. He’s not the type to run into a dumb counter, unlike other fighters I know. It’s going to be an extremely stressful fight, but I’m going to stick with Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision.
Haxxorized: Let us talk about Volk:
1) Volk comes into every fight with clear strategies that disrupt his opponent's strong qualities.
2) Volk is durable, conditioned and savvy enough to do this over five rounds.
3) Volk transitions these broader strategic starts into increasingly opportunistic, tactile, tactical and technical reads as the fight progresses.
Or in other words: Volk's starting plan is the foundation where from his later-round creativity and adaptation flow. The man does not go into a fight without proper tape study of his opponent and a keen sense of what within his toolbox will work. He'll fuck your sense of direction up early and take notes from how you adapt to ensure rounds four and five go his way. Volk's approach contrasts nicely with Yan, who ties his pre-fight "homework" to simple, execution-based reads. The strategy for how Yan hammers you comes later - A Volk-like process in depth, complexity and intelligence, but somewhat in reverse. Both start slow and with a definite sense of purpose.
Ortega provides an exciting antithesis to Volk's process. A dynamic and entertaining finisher with excellent physical gifts and remarkable creativity, he is no joke. Ortega is particularly intriguing in his ability to create moments of success and chain them into triumph - Moicano and Edgar come to mind. He can be crude at times, but a tremendous chin and endless stamina (even on the end of an All-time Great Holloway beating) twinned with Ortega's eye for what works can take you a long way. Ortega's defence comes to mind - not at all there, but he does seem to get why it should be, and he's trying.
And what a strange dynamic that produces here. Ortega's "growth" in his last fight was a departure from pressure, pace, and confidence. Given Volk's preference to start pre-planned and build the 'reactive' data bank over time, T-City's chances to force openings would appear highest early. Yet there is a certain logic in fighting more to his length, and less to his chin, extending the fight and creating more "grey space" with which to land counters and sift for moments.
It is one of those contests - between a man reliant on his system (as much as great depth and complexity within it exists) facing a man who's found great success instinctively scrambling his way to fight-within-fight winning processes on the fly. Those tend to have high error values - Max could force his fight down Ortega's throat, but can anyone else? Covid exposure adds another wonderful little fuck you question to this fight. Volk could show notable decline, and that is no place to be against Ortega. A five-round fight against a man comfortable on the margins is an awful place to be when you are operating on thinner margins than you expect.
Ben Kohn: As mentioned, in great depth, Volkanovski should be the favorite here. His tactical and strategic implementation of his gameplans, adjustments made in the fight, and overall toolset make him the clear favorite over Ortega. The monkey wrench is going to be Ortega’s grappling. Oftentimes, when a fighter has a massive submission grappling advantage, the opponent will choose to avoid engaging not only on the ground, but the clinch as well. Max Holloway had a significant range advantage over Volk, which helps when trying to maintain distance in a fight. Volk’s size, and style of fighting, works best when he’s able to utilize all facets of his skillset, including his takedowns and, if possible, top control and vicious ground and pound. He has not been able to utilize them in recent fights, at all, BUT the threat was there, he would not have had any problem grappling with the likes of Mendes, Aldo, or Holloway. Ortega’s snapdown and guillotine’s really are lethal, and his grappling in general is quite a high level for MMA.
For me, Ortega fighting Zombie off the backfoot was a good thing for him. Regardless of whether you think it was a good matchup or it was improvements in his game, it not gives Volkanovski more to worry about. Will Ortega force Volkanovski to lead and look to land big counters and reactive shots/clinch entries? Will Ortega use his size, durability, and power to force Volkanovski on the back foot? From there, force exchanges in limited space to grab hold of the clinch? I’m not sure what he will do, but the fact that Volkanovski will need contingency plans for this is important. He will have to have responses to when, not if, grappling sequences are initiated.
If I’m Ortega’s coaches, I’d try and take advantage of the fact that 1) your last fight had the outfighting gameplan and 2) Volkanovski builds his reads and gets better as the fight goes on. Early on, use your size and power advantage, force Volkanovski to react, look for openings for big moments, and try to at least bank a few rounds off them. If the finish comes, wonderful, but if not, playing an outfighting game, and giving time for Volkanovski to get his reads, distance, and timing, seems very risky. If the finish doesn’t come, switch things up, fight off the backfoot at times, give Volkanovski more and more to think about. Smart fighters don’t like being overloaded with information. Forcing Volkanovski to switch modes when he doesn’t want to, making him react constantly, is Ortega’s path to victory here.
Not sure he can do that though, but there’s a chance Covid ruined Volk anyway. Either way, Alexander Volkanovski UD.