Román ‘Chocolatito’ González vs. Juan Francisco Estrada: The Fight Site Staff Predictions
One of the most highly-anticipated fights in recent memory is finally here - this evening, pound-for-pound standouts Román ‘Chocolatito’ González and Juan Francisco Estrada will square off once again in a rematch that’s been nearly 9 years in the making. This week, our boxing staff have been deliberating over picks and predictions ahead of tonight’s action. Take a look at some of our thoughts!
Kyle McLachlan: No one seems to agree with me, but I’m still of the opinion that we’ve seen the best from both men already and that this fight is happening much too late. I am very happy to be proven wrong on Gonzalez’s ‘imminent demise’ though, and his recent good form has been heartwarming to see.
Is this where it ends though? Consider that their first bout was a nip-and-tuck affair, with Estrada doing the business at range whilst having the size and skill to at least hold his own in Gonzalez’s wheelhouse. Will it be any different? Whilst both men refined their skillsets as they moved up in weight, they are both past their physical prime as well, so it evens out a little bit.
Add to the fact that I believe Gonzalez to be further gone than Estrada (despite Estrada having had a more competitive than anticipated rematch with Carlos Cuadras) and 115lbs being a more comfortable weight for the Mexican, I cannot see a bout too dissimilar from their first, but this time with Estrada being on the right side of the decision.
Taylor Higgins: Before Estrada-Cuadras II, I’d have picked the Mexican with some confidence. I think Chocolatito looked good against Yafai in part because of the opponent in front of him, and I didn’t quite buy that ‘he was back’ at the time. I’m still not convinced he is - the days of vintage Chocolatito are gone, I’m afraid - but the volume is still there and so is the offensive genius.
Estrada looked to have slipped a little himself against Cuadras, although it’s hard to say because ‘El Gallo’ has always been somewhat inconsistent in his performances. That being said, I like him to get the win on Saturday night. My pick ultimately hinges on the fact that Chocolatito’s legs aren’t what they used to be, something I thought was apparent last time out against Israel González, and that Estrada is the more comfortable of the two at 115lbs - I think those two factors could well make the difference in this highly-anticipated rematch. Whilst Gonzalez has a real chance of winning this, I think his diminished mobility will see him struggle to maintain a high-pace throughout which is what he needs to win here. I’ve got Estrada by decision, possibly a late stoppage in the championship rounds.
Lukasz Fenrych: Kyle’s right that both men are past their best. He’s also right that despite a good performance against Yafai and the unknown-at-the-time Israel Gonzalez Chocolatito is probably further from his - the combinations were still on show in those fights and were more than enough, but the footwork seemed to have slowed a little from his peak and the head movement is definitely far from what it was. This is going to be a problem for him because even a slightly-faded Estrada has excellent in-and-out footwork and, obviously, superb counters, which makes me think that Gonzalez will struggle to stay close enough to unleash his long combinations, and be vulnerable to the counter as he tries. I actually don’t think this fight will be that similar to their first: that one had the curious scenario where the fighters almost swapped their usual styles, with the Nicaraguan’s timing causing problems in shorter exchanges but Estrada realising he had a hand speed advantage in long combinations.
I don’t think that will happen this time- even if Gonzalez hasn’t faded as much as I think, Estrada has made far bigger jumps since the first fight in terms of tricks to deal with an opponent’s timing, and should be able to catch him coming in without being out-sniped. The result of all this means I’m a bit less confident about an even fight and am picking Estrada to have a fairly dominant performance and possibly a late KO.
Ollie Raderecht: Back in 2019, if I had been asked to predict the winner of a potential rematch between Juan Francisco Estrada and Román González, I would have comfortably backed the former. After all, Estrada had just beaten Chocolatito’s former conqueror, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, to become the consensus number 1 super flyweight in the world and a fixture in every respectable top 10 pound-for-pound list. Meanwhile, Chocolatito had only fought once — against an overmatched Moises Fuentes — in the 2-year period since that devastating KO defeat to Srisaket. However, 2020 changed my view on the long-awaited rematch entirely.
Chocolatito’s 2020 resurgence proved that he isn’t the washed fighter many assumed him to be post-Srisaket. The manner in which he defeated both Khalid Yafai and Israel González (both of whom were considered top 10 at super flyweight at the time of each fight) demonstrated Chocolatito’s still-elite skillset. In spite of Tito’s undeniably impressive campaign last year, many people are still placing emphasis on the Nicaraguan having declined physically, and Gallo Estrada being the far fresher of the two, when predicting the outcome of their rematch. In my opinion, that won’t be a determining factor at the weekend, firstly, because I don’t think Tito’s much further over the hill than Estrada. Crucially, Estrada’s at a stage where he’s physically declining — looking at the Cuadras fight, I think it’s clear he’s slowing down — and hasn’t remained active enough to adjust to said decline. Simply put, Estrada’s less used to being physically past it, whilst Chocolatito’s had more time to adjust technically since slipping. Against Moises Fuentes, for example, Chocolatito appeared more static and hittable than we’re used to seeing him, but he rectified that against Yafai, constantly pivoting and turning the Brit in the pocket à la prime González.
Chocolatito’s visibly slowed over time, admittedly, but he’s adjusted well to the decline in speed, becoming more efficient than ever. I think the Nicaraguan will be able to circumvent the speed disadvantage against Gallo with superior positioning and timing, and Estrada will struggle to prevent Tito from consistently stepping around and out-working him. On the other hand, Estrada’s own excellent footwork and counter-punching acumen will make it an exceedingly tough task for González to out-position him without taking punishment in return. But overall, I still trust Tito’s ability to keep an opponent (yes, even Estrada) under pressure whilst catching and slipping their work. Chocolatito’s extraordinary punch output and constant, precise movement were on full display last time out, while Estrada started slowly and tired late against Carlos Cuadras — a fighter considered far further over the hill than Chocolatito. For that reason, along with Choco’s improved pre-fight preparation since returning to the championship level, I find it hard to envision Tito struggling to maintain a pace despite the mileage on him.
For me, it’s a case of an in-form, invigorated past-prime fighter against a fighter currently on the decline. What’s more, I believe the former to be the better fighter of the two, with a stylistic advantage. Hence, I’m picking Román González to win a clear decision in a high-level, action-packed fight.