Rico Verhoeven vs Badr Hari 2: The Fight Site Staff Predictions

Rico Verhoeven vs Badr Hari II is the biggest fight that can be made in kickboxing today. Although their first fight made a big splash in the kickboxing world, it ended in disappointment. After an early burst of aggression which saw him open a cut on Verhoeven’s face, Hari retired in the second round with a puzzling arm injury. At Glory Collision 2, the two megastars will face off in a rematch that will hopefully deliver on its promise.

The Fight Site’s Kickboxing minds give you the low-down on this explosive matchup:

Ryan: I’ll begin by discussing the broad dynamics of the fight. In their first match, Hari largely stuck to the outside, allowing Verhoeven to advance and attempting to use combination punching to crack his tight high guard. Hari’s true advantage lies in the pocket, however as he thrives in punching exchanges while Verhoeven prefers to avoid them. Hari can compete with Verhoeven at kicking distance, using sharp leg kicks and switch kicks to the body in order to halt his advance or corral him in the ring, but he cannot match Verhoeven’s craft, volume, or defensive consistency on the outside. Clinching range belongs to Verhoeven, who makes good use of collar ties, frames, and knees, while Hari is largely inert when opponents collapse the pocket.

Hari found most of his success in their first fight with his jab and body shots. A sharp, ramrod jab allowed Hari to halt Verhoeven’s advance and draw the high guard, where he could hit the body with impunity. He was able to build combinations off his body work, landing the left hook upstairs, but largely had trouble getting past Verhoeven’s high guard.

Verhoeven is the type of fighter who builds off his successes, using his opponent’s reactions to set up offense with feints and wearing them down with pace; as such, it’s no surprise that he had a slow first round. Verhoeven began picking up steam in the second round before Hari’s untimely exit, however. He was applying more consistent pressure and forcing Hari back to the ropes. Hari had less success boxing, as Rico began countering the jab and using his kicks and clinch work to limit exchanges.

There’s an obvious problem for Hari here that limits his options - he is almost certainly not prepared to go five hard rounds with a volume puncher like Verhoeven. Verhoeven can be made uncomfortable by opponents who push him backwards, but an aggressive Hari risks burning out his cardio before he can find an opening to deal meaningful damage. Verhoeven’s offense becomes much more limited when he’s forced to move backwards, while he’s much more successful putting a pace on his opponents moving forward. The volume of Verhoeven means that Hari likely won’t be able to keep up an out-fighting game either. Look for Hari to stick on the outside for much of the fight, carefully picking his opportunities to enter the pocket and create offense, and becoming more aggressive if he hurts Verhoeven or gets frustrated.

While Hari has an advantage in punching exchanges, it will be difficult for him to leverage that advantage. Hari’s footwork on the outside leaves much to be desired, which means he will likely have trouble putting himself in positions to enter the pocket. In his most recent fight against Hesdy Gerges, Hari was boxing him up in exchanges, but found himself stuck on the ropes often, a mark for Gerges’ flurries. Hari eventually became frustrated with being put on the ropes and began pressuring aggressively, but his pressure footwork was also rife with issues. Rather than forcing Gerges back and cutting the ring, Hari would adopt a high guard and march straight at him, using his gloves to force Gerges back while hitting. Pressuring this way against Verhoeven will lead him straight into the clinch and Verhoeven’s potent knees.

When Hari does find the exchanges, he likely has a couple rounds to make something happen before Verhoeven’s pace gets to him. Verhoeven is vulnerable on the counter as he enters, but Hari is not an especially sharp counter-puncher, especially on the back-foot. Hari is a fairly rote boxer, attacking in preset combinations, which means it may be difficult for him to find a way around Verhoeven’s tight guard, as he is not great at creating and exploiting openings. His combination punching is solid though, and if he can get inside, his body-head combos could be difficult for Verhoeven to deal with.

The longer the fight goes, the more Verhoeven will open up and drown an increasingly tired Hari in volume. Verhoeven uses long-range kicks to set up his entries into the pocket, closing distance by punching off kicks and stepping into the opposite stance off feinted front kicks. His shifting footwork will make it difficult for Hari to land clean kicks, as he often enters with his shin high and exits in a square stance. While he is vulnerable in the pocket, his clinch game gives him an exit when exchanges get too deep. Verhoeven makes excellent use of frames to create distance, allowing him to strike and move out. He is the more physical man even while at a power disadvantage, and he can use his clinch to maneuver Hari around the ring, either to push him to the ropes and flurry, or alleviate Hari’s own aggression.

While it wouldn’t be terribly shocking if the inconsistent Hari showed up in rare form, his limited path to victory means that Verhoeven should win more often than not. Hari likely needs to finish him early, and I’m not sure if Hari carries enough power to make that happen at this point in his career. The pick is Rico Verhoeven via Unanimous Decision, although a late finish through attrition and pace would not surprise.

Danny: Finally, it dies. The last fight was three years ago and, fun as it may have been, is this really the fight kickboxing needs right now? Whatever we get here likely isn’t worth the hours in the gym Hari has clearly spent for it. Nonetheless. Badr Hari is old, and has only fought once since the unceremonious arm break against Rico the first time around, in an uninspired showing against Hesdy Gerges. He’s still the same guy he’s always been; a void in the clinch who mostly just looks to tie up and hold until breaks, a nominally better exchanger in the pocket, and someone who doesn’t tend to pull fights back if he starts losing them.

The rear hand straight and the body jab should be primary tools for Hari against Rico, who possesses the deeper craft but is still fairly defensively open, particularly in exchanges. From Rico’s end, feinting his way inside, cutting the ring, and mostly just keeping Hari busy with disguised strikes and stance-switches is likely enough to befuddle the serial abuser at this point in his career. As Ryan pointed out, Hari’s advantage in the pocket isn’t likely to be pressed often because Hari doesn’t have the footwork or the output the leverage it. Badr’s feet are slow on pivots and resets, plus it’s too easy to break his stance along the ropes, meaning Rico will be able to kick his trailing leg. He’s still a much harder puncher than Rico, but if Rico’s in-and-out game gets rolling, Hari will likely be left empty-handed. Cross-countering the jab and punching off kicks worked well the first time around. If Hari attempts to push Rico back, he’s marching straight into the clinch.

Ryan has done a far better job of breaking down the technical specifics of this fight, but I’ll say this; Badr Hari isn’t it anymore. Getting outjabbed and swarmed along the fence by Gerges was a bad look, and the Rico looked to be trending away from Hari by the time of the injury in the first place. After a competitive round and a half, I suspect this might end up oddly one-sided. Rico Verhoeven by Unanimous Decision.

Kevin: The rematch everyone has been waiting for, and without a question the highest profile fight Kickboxing has to offer this year. With all the big names retiring in recent years, switching to more lucrative combat sports or slowly fading into obscurity, Rico has emerged as the new star Kickboxing and Glory needed. As the last obstacle of this generational shift stands Badr Hari. The old guard, the ‘Bad Boy’, the last remainder of the golden era.

With age and possibly wisdom, came a stylistic change for Badr, shifting away from his usual aggression we saw him succeed (and sometimes fail) with, to a more technical and economic approach that many people are interpreting as his fall from grace. I really don’t think it’s that black and white, I do think however it will play right into Rico Verhoeven’s game plan.

In their first fight Rico was the one pushing the action, trying to pressure Badr with fast combinations and kicks. Badr was composed, staying on the outside jabbing, working his clubbing right hands off counters and openings Rico gave him by closing distance too carelessly. Tensions were running high, and Rico was seemingly a little frustrated by Badrs stiff jab from the get go, which made him vulnerable to Badr’s assault from the outside. I don’t expect the second fight to start much differently, a fairly competitive tit for tat with Rico slowly finding his rhythm, dissecting Badrs rhythm and overtaking the fight in the later rounds. Although looking in the shape of his life, it’s hard to predict how Badr will fare when pushed to the limits, especially considering his sparse fighting schedule in recent years. Judging from the outside, his training camp looks to be more structured than the last time, with Badr actually having a set goal to work towards to, for such a long time. In spite of that, it might just be unavoidable to not get picked apart by Rico’s superior shot selection and sheer volume once the championship rounds start. Especially the moment Rico starts taking Badrs legs with inside lowkicks, and sap his energy in the clinch whenever Badr steps in to avoid precisely those, Badr will leave openings for Rico to capitalize on.

While that might sound all too grim for Badrs winning chances, I genuinely do believe in his work ethic and power. Rico hasn’t faced anyone in his title reign that’s as proficient a puncher as Badr, who most definitely still has the most explosive hands in the heavyweight division. Might be a little optimistic of a pick for such a high stakes fight, but I don’t believe this will go the distance either way. I favor Rico Verhoeven by KO in the later stages of the fight.

Hamady: The other guys already gave the best and most complete technical breakdown possible so I won't go on and repeat what they said. I also don't think Hari has the one punch KO power anymore, so his best path to the victory is working Rico's body early to slow him down, and then force the exchanges in the pocket to try and knock him out in the first 2 rounds. He'll have to be active. If the fight goes longer, it favors Rico, who's volume will probably takeover and grow increasidly harder to deal with. Rico will probably start slow, picking apart Badr from the distance with his kicks, and try and clinch every time Badr gets too close. Rico's been in a lot of 5 rounders now, and even though he hasn't fought for a bit more than a year now, he's been much more active than Badr in the last 3 years. He'll be able to pick up the pace as the fight goes on, and try to walk Badr down just like he did Jamal Ben Saddik.

I'll go on and say this: a Rico decision win is the most likely scenario. But I'll chose my guts for this one. Hari's most precious weapon has always been his will. I'm not that much into mythical beasts, but "Focused Hari" is a real thing! I do believe that Badr is in the best shape of his life. I suspect he'll be much faster than the 1st time around, and I want to believe we'll see a closer version of the best Hari, the one who KO’d Gokhan Saki with ease, than in the 1st fight.

And if I'm right, he'll be able to pull this off, and stop Rico. He might even get the judges nod if he's able to maintain pressure long enough, and I want to believe he's in good enough shape to do it. Hari by decision.