UFC 247: The Fight Site Staff Predictions
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Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes
Danny Martin: Ryan, Sriram and myself will be covering this matchup in much greater detail on this week’s podcast, but I need to employ my own rule here: When a streaking contender is fighting a champion in whom the cracks are beginning to show, pick the streaking contender. If the Thiago Santos fight is an encapsulation of who Jon Jones is and how he fights today, then I flatly don’t have any faith in his ability to beat functional strikers who can kick his legs, fence at range, and throw jabs. Bit of a leap of faith here, but Dominick Reyes via Unanimous Decision.
Sriram Muralidaran: Pretty much the same as Danny. Jon Jones' skillset can't support his current trend towards risk-aversion; he isn’t good enough at boxing into range and into the clinch to enter safely, and he looked entirely unwilling to push through Santos’ counters to force the area where he should’ve had the most advantage (in the wrestling and on top). His (relative) struggle against Smith to work in the clinch and deal damage on the ground suggest that even that competitive advantage is waning. What that leaves him is a skillset as a reasonably creative kicker without real kicking-defense, mechanically awful boxing with defensive poise that relies on leveraging a length advantage, and fairly strong ring-generalship but only on the backfoot. Against a strong kicker and powerful counterpuncher in Dominick Reyes, one with a big advantage in the boxing and without a sizable disadvantage in length, I don't expect him to look good even if he wins. There’s a chance Reyes falls apart over 5 or against adversity, or simply buys into the Jones legend and fights passively (the way Smith did), but he’s a real challenge for Jones if his skillset is used fully. It’s a fight that demands the best of Jones, and I’m increasingly convinced that the best of Jones isn’t there anymore. Reyes via UD.
Tommy Elliot: Jones is without a doubt at a very vulnerable point in his career. His skills and dedication both seem to have been eroding over the past few years, and Reyes is a game challenger. Still, Reyes’s outing against Volkan Oezdimir gives me pause on him being the man to dethrone Bones. He has the skills but he also seems less inclined to push the pace than Jones’s last challenger, Thiago Santos. A big part of Santos’s success came from just going at Jones and refusing to be deterred by Bones’s interrupting weapons. As dangerous a finisher as Reyes has shown himself to be once he has his man hurt, he’s not terribly aggressive in space and I think he needs to be to beat Jones. Jon is still great at paralyzing otherwise come forward fighters (the Anthony Smith fight comes to mind), and Reyes has shown that he can become timid if he’s not sure of his lines of attack. I think Jon Jones pulls out one more lackluster defense. Jones by UD.
Julian Lung: Jones is probably unlikely going to change much. Unfortunately I haven’t seen Reyes tested beyond the 3rd round and I have a suspicion that he lacks the ability to keep Jones from smashing him into the fence. Reyes will likely outpoint Jones at mid-range, with low kicks and playing off the southpaw double attack. But I can Jones just out chinning Reyes and walking him into the fence and stalling. Reyes by split decision.
Ed Gallo: My most confident prediction is that this fight is going to be terrible. I’m expecting to see the Jones of the Smith and Santos fights, someone comfortable winning by the skin of his teeth in a low volume ranged kickboxing match, with little regard for changing the dynamic of the fight regardless of how ineffective he is. Reyes checks a few boxes - he kicks the legs, he’s got the height and reach to have his range without needing to pressure well, he’s decently strong and athletic, he’s going to attack fairly consistently.
While I don’t really rate Reyes as a wrestler or grappler, Jones’ wrestling seems to be quickly becoming a non-factor. His physical decline has led to prioritizing a low-effort gameplan, and it’s not like his opponents are serving up entries on a platter like they used to. We might see some half-hearted shots to get to a clinch position, but even there, Jones’ game seems watered down. On the other hand, Jones is still incredibly durable, picks away with some of his preferred kicking tools, and doesn’t gas hard enough to make him particularly vulnerable.
Reyes, on the other hand, is certainly capable of falling apart and getting sloppy as the fight progresses. I don’t necessarily think this will lead to a Jones-Gus 2 scenario where he gets blown out the second he weakens, but the rounds are going to get tighter, and uglier. If Reyes wins, it’s likely on volume, but I expect rounds 3-5 to be uncomfortably close. Ultimately, it’s not a matchup I’m looking forward to, and it’ll either be a disappointing, frustrating performance from Jones or a unceremonious, anticlimactic decision for Reyes. I’ll say Reyes nabs the decision in a fight that is barely better than Shevchenko-Chookagian.
Ryan Wagner: Reyes is a very solid counterpuncher, and I don’t think he’s particularly good anywhere else. He plays the southpaw double attack game, but his body kicking is technically poor and conceptually rudimentary, and his straight left lacks nuance and is relatively easy to avoid on the lead. His leg kicks are fine, but he lacks the process Santos has developed around delivering them (and I use the word “process” here incredibly lightly).
Jones is long and uses his length well, spending much of his time at the edge of kicking range. He extends his hands to occupy the opponent’s, impeding their straight punches. He’s also one of the worst boxers in high level MMA, so the brunt of his offense is going to come through kick volume and clinch work. All of this means that Reyes likely has trouble leveraging anything he does remotely well. Jones won’t give him much to work with on the counter, Reyes hasn’t shown much ability to set up hooks or overhands well (which could bypass Jones’ handfighting and frames), and lacks the ability to throw any kind of complex combination or even carry himself into an effective range for his punches while leading. Even his body work is limited to long straights, which will be difficult to find with Jones’ length and distance. His kicks will work, because Jones hasn’t shown much inclination or ability to defend leg kicks recently, and can be caught with body kicks, but Jones’ kicks will work too, and they’ll likely work more consistently and longer into the fight.
Although Jones’ wrestling has degraded astronomically - his shot in the open no longer functioning at all except to take him into the clinch, and his clinch wrestling itself withering severely - he can probably wrestle Reyes if he wants to. Reyes’ takedown defense is not good at all. He has solid balance, an urgency to stand up when taken down, and is athletically potent, but that’s about where the good stuff ends. He doesn’t fight grips at all on bodylocks or double legs on the cage, and often seems not to know where to put his hands in the clinch. He’s slow to whizzer and his loose hand positioning means that, if Jones is in danger of losing clinch positioning, he can likely transition to his single or double wrist control and force a positional concession out of Reyes.
I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Reyes wins, because at this point I can see Jones losing to someone who is long, a decent athlete, and a willing kicker, but all signs to me point to a Jones victory. Reyes isn’t yet developed enough for elite fighters, and only a division as bad as Light Heavyweight could carry him to a title shot before he’s really figured out his game yet. The pick is Jones via UD
Ben Kohn: Pretty much every single thing has been said, so I’ll try and point out little things I noticed. The first is that Reyes, in the Weidman fight, came out pressuring immediately. It seems he wanted to fight against type vs. a noted pressure fighter, so one of the things brought up on the podcast was the idea of him fighting against type. I do think we will see Reyes try to do that, at least in the beginning (and depending on his success rate) by coming forward.
Secondly, Reyes ends up in the clinch along the fence, a lot. And while Jones’ wrestling has regressed, he still will likely feel safer there. But, Reyes has also shown both danger and urgency in the clinch as well as great balance/recovery as well. There was a moment in the Weidman fight where Reyes slightly rotated his upper body so that his back hit the fence while Weidman tried dragging him down, which helped Reyes stay upright. He seems to be quite adept at positioning his body correctly in those scenarios.
So what do I see happening? I think Reyes will initially try pressing forward with punching combinations punctuated with leg and body kicks. I don’t think he can sustain that without getting tied up (see how Weidman ducked under Reyes’ punches to initiate a wrestling exchange). But, Jones is far less of a takedown shot artist than even current Chris Weidman. So I expect Reyes to do some decent work there, until he eventually falls away from the gameplan. I think this fight resembles the Gus 1 fight in a lot of ways, with Reyes competing with Jones at kicking range well enough, landing the better punches, and slowing down as the fight goes on. I am picking Reyes to win though, 48-47 with lots of Jones fans claiming robbery. Dominick Reyes by UD.
Mateusz Frenych: It’s not that Jones was never good. Once upon a time, not so long ago, Jones exhibited a functionally excellent skillset. It’s just that, when he was disposing of the fading old guard, it wasn’t very important that he couldn’t transition between those different skill sets all that well.
Even as recently as his second bout with Cormier, he exhibited a useful outside kicking game, while also being fairly dangerous in the clinch and with very good top control, grappling and even some scrambling. The fact that he doesn’t have a reliable way to get to access the clinch, his strongest area, was of little importance when fighters like DC were willing to charge through space into close range.
In Jones-DC II, he was able to utilise various jamming techniques, and intercepting strikes to tire Cormier out, such as knees to the body, oblique kicks and eventually the head kick, as Cormier came forward. However, of late, Jones has shown a reticence to even attempt accessing his greatest areas of strength.
Since working out, and working over, Cormier, he has had three uninspiring performances against a flaccid G, an Anthony Smith apparently too scared to attack in any way, and a Santos who, when blitzing with combos backed Jones up, and when he couldn’t because he destroyed one of his own knees and could barely stand, Jones seemed to have little idea how to close distance and do damage.
So, given an opponent like Reyes, who not only matches Jones for height, but is comfortable working going backwards – and thus will not be forced to come at Jones- and moving laterally, the potential for Jones to be able negate Reyes’ offence over time and wear him down to a decision recedes drastically.
The main question is Reyes’ experience; he may have the kicking game, footwork, power and stature to trouble Jones, but the much more battle-tested and spiteful fighter in John may just be able to game him out of fighting his best fight- Reyes’ pre-fight pre-empting of Jones’ tendency to eyepoke is not altogether encouraging- but, if Reyes maintains his composure, I can see a UD for Reyes at the final horn.
Mirsad Bektic vs. Dan Ige
Sriram: Bektic turned from superprospect to disappointment (at least compared to what he was meant to be) with his latest loss, a puzzling one against Josh Emmett that always seemed to be one where he'd need to get quick to his win condition to stand a chance. Against the fairly unpolished puncher, Bektic was able to play a bit with a jab/straight, but his inability to confidently close distance to wrestle meant that he was stranded in a range where he was hopelessly outgunned. Simply put, he wasn't good enough at striking to be so confident in staying there.
Bektic is unlikely to have the same problem against Ige, who isn't as notorious a puncher nor an athlete and who has been held down in prior fights, but will likely have a different one. Ige's insurmountable struggle against the sharp and varied jab of Julio Arce is a red flag, but even past the stance-matchup being different, Arce was insulated from the returns by having very strong proactive head movement; Ige proved in his fight against Kevin Aguilar to be quite a consistent and powerful catch-and-pitch counterpuncher, and Bektic's lack of general defensive responsibility (as well as his historical fragility) leaves him vulnerable if he sticks to striking again. Ige is generally the smarter and more comfortable boxer in exchanges, and his bodywork could pay off handsomely to speed up a very defined cardio-dropoff.
The most likely probabilities seem to be either a focused Bektic top-gaming Ige's life away within the first half of the fight or the usual Bektic dynamic (which is risky for Bektic). Ige is durable and he has heart, and he isn't a bad-enough grappler to get absolutely smashed at a high-enough clip to trust Mirsad. One guy has all the tools to reliably win, but I'll pick the other. Ige by third round TKO.
Danny: Mirsad Bektic is a very easy fighter to read. His natural athleticism and hand speed carried him through his early career, but as a striker, he’s very rote and isn’t any kind of organic combination puncher. Whether an opponent is willing to just throw back at him, or interrupt him at the beginning of an exchange, Bektic’s single mindedness means that he’ll sell out on massive, predictable punching combinations and not realize he’s being outmaneuvered. In retrospect, he’s incredibly fortunate that an early-career fight with Max Holloway never materialized. Ige is not the guy you want to be doing that against, since he possesses surprising hand speed, an ability to play off opponent’s reactions to feints, and a surprisingly workmanlike approach to body-head combinations. Basically, Bektic is an athletic underachiever, and Ige is an unathletic overachiever. Bektic could just physically overwhelm Ige, but his lack of confidence and lack of durability make him exceedingly difficult to trust. Dan Ige via third round KO.
Ryan: This is an awful card and I don’t want to expend more effort talking about it than the UFC did in booking it. Bektic lacks a coherent process around his grappling, which prevents him from being able to make it work on elite fighters, but he has sound wrestling and a genuinely excellent top game. I don’t know much about Ige and given the little I’ve seen, I don’t have much reason to trust him to avoid Bektic’s grappling. Bektic via DEC I guess
Ed: My analysis for this fight is super reductive, but I see Dan Ige as a fighter with a grappling base who is picking up on a physical, aggressive boxing game. He’s got power, and doesn’t have any major deficiencies in his skill-set that justify Bektic just running through him early. I have zero trust in Bektic’s chin, and see Ige by KO in a fight he’s losing.
Ben: It’s not unexpected to be down on Bektic. From uber-prospect, to seemingly a bust with a suspect chin, it’s hard to get behind the guy. That being said, he’s still a ridiculous athlete, really fast, solid power, and excellent top control with good enough wrestling to consistently get his opponents down, outside the elite. Ige, as mentioned, is not a great athlete, nor a real threat compared to guys like Emmett. He’s certainly not as dangerous as a guy like Ricardo Lamas. While Bektic’s chin is suspect, I don’t think we can say it’s glass just yet. If Ige can get him out of there, then it’s fair to say Bektic is done. Until then, Mirsad Bektic by UD.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Tommy: Chookagian is a perfectly fine mid range kickboxer with average athleticism for women’s flyweight. She is going to have nothing for Valentina Shevchenko, who is a very good kickboxer and extremely athletic to boot. At the same time, the Blonde Fighter (nickname game is weak too) is not aggressive enough to bring a really fun fight out of Shevchenko ala Jessica Eye. I expect Valentina will dominate almost every minute of what I expect to be a dull five round slog. Shevchenko via UD.
Sriram: There’s nothing to say. Shevchenko via UD.
Danny: Awful. Shevchenko via fifth round submission.
Ryan: Shevchenko via UD I guess.
Julian: Chookagian has 0 power and Shev isn’t a finisher unless her opponent is static or on the ground. Expect Chookagian to run a half-marathon and puncture a lung from kiai-ing too hard. Shev. UD.
Ed: My prediction is that this fight will be marginally better than Shevchenko-Carmouche, at least Chookagian will be giving Shevchenko something to counter, right? With Tommy, would be surprised if Shevchenko loses a round, but god, this card.
Ben: Shevchenko will bust out that strength and size advantage and likely shmush Chookagian. And then probably KO her if Chook gets cute like Eye. But unlikely Chook is that dumb so Valentina Shevchenko by UD.
Mateusz: Ugh. When is Hill/Lookboonmee again? Shevchenko via second round KO.
Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi
Tommy: Generally speaking, fighting on the high end of your natural weight class favors strikers who gain additional speed and get to work against slower opposition while also gaining some cardio (due to the easier weight cut) allowing for a higher volume of output. Think Frankie Edgar at LW. Weight moves down favor grapplers, especially grindy ones who want to wear your down against the cage and on the mat. Demian Maia’s mid career renaissance is a testament to what having a sudden size and power edge can mean for the effectiveness of your wrestling. Ilir Latifi was a fire hydrant at LHW, and he’ll be seriously undersized at HW. He’s also a power grapper, and while you can be a shorter power grappler and have success with the big boys you need to have a huge gas tank ala Daniel Cormier during his Strikeforce days. Latifi likes to grind out his TDs up against the fence and has had cardio problems; now he’ll be trying to grind out TDs against much bigger and stronger men while also carrying more weight himself, hardly a recipe for improved aerobic performance. Derrick Lewis on the other hand, while he has started to try and do more MMA things in his MMA fights, is still basically the king of doing nothing until he KOs you out of nowhere. I expect Latifi will have success pushing Lewis back early but will expend all his energy in the first round and a half looking for TDs, and when his blitzes are coming slower in the third Lewis will be able to time him coming in for a finish. This fight will probably feature a lot of two large exhausted men staring at each other, but that’s the sort of fight Lewis excels in. Derrick Lewis by 3rd round KO.
Sriram: I’m very disappointed that Latifi’s debut at 265 isn’t Stefan Struve. That said, this one is…interesting, in a way that’s likely to be fairly dull. Lewis is not a volume-fighter and he’s not particularly hard to take down; that favors Latifi, who struggled with his gastank at 205 and is a fairly competent takedown artist. On the other hand, Lewis carries power late and generally knows when to show urgency, which means he might just walk an inevitably-exhausted 3rd round Latifi down and find his shot. Weirdly enough, I’d favor Latifi in a purely striking fight, even though he’s probably the less durable party; he was fairly explosive at 205 and can do reasonably smart things (like going to the body and doubling on punches), where Lewis is the uncreative and plodding type who doesn’t throw early-volume and is a gassing threat himself.
For a heavyweight fight likely to be dumb and bad, I’m somehow of two minds; while Ilir is strictly more skilled at both striking and wrestling, the flow of the fight almost certainly favors the “Black Beast”. I guess I’ll do what I’m clearly trying my best to justify, and pick Latifi to outwork Lewis early and stall him out late. Latifi by decision.
Ryan: Lewis via KO I guess.
Danny: Boy, we’re really running on fumes for this one. Lewis via KO.
Julian: I think Ilir would surprise most of us, but probably in the saddest of ways. He won’t finish Lewis but I totally see him alternating between takedowns from half court to sprinting combinations that give Lewis an alleyway shave. Lewis is probably going to miss everything but Lewis always fails his way to success. Latifi by split. *Expect the total strikes landed to be below 20*
Ben: Latifi is going to gas faster than Lewis and get KO’d in round 2. Lewis seems to have actively done things in the Ivanov fight, things that made sense as well. I expect Latifi might even hurt Lewis in round 1 since he’s rather explosive, and packs a punch. That being said, grappling Lewis has proven only one thing, and that is it’ll tire you out worse than Lewis. The only person to beat Lewis in quite a while using a grappling gameplan is Cormier, and Latifi is not Cormier. I already said it, Lewis by KO round 2.
Mateusz: The main reason for watching, to be honest; the comedy fight. Aside from the almost certainly comical size difference- think muscular French Bulldog vs an elephant seal with a weirdly athletic high kick- every promotion needs its own Sapp vs Osunaarashi. Expect lots of slow, gasping circling, and a Dereck Lewis win via Least Worst Deflation. Lewis via UD.