UFC 267: The Fight Site Predictions
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Especially considering the UFC’s recent run of low-stakes main events, UFC 267 is a refreshing, meaningful night of fights. Headlining the card is light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, who separated himself from his peers with an elite-level win over Israel Adesanya, as well as with a solid streak against high-ranked 205-pounders. At 42 years old, Glover Teixeira is competing for the title for the second time, eight years after his demoralizing loss to Jon Jones. Despite his age and apparent durability issues, Teixeira is on the longest winning streak of his career since entering the UFC, and could threaten the respected champion in an area of potential vulnerability.
The co-main event, originally slated as a title rematch between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan, sees Cory Sandhagen stepping in to replace the champion. Despite a disqualification loss to Sterling, Yan’s dominance and clear momentum in the bout demonstrated that he is not only the best bantamweight in the UFC, he might be among the top three best fighters in the world, period. The interim title challenger Cory Sandhagen, meanwhile, arguably won a dogfight with bantamweight great TJ Dillashaw, a performance that raised the stock of both competitors. It was the boost Sandhagen needed after a quick shutout against Aljamain Sterling in 2020. The two offensive whirlwinds match up promisingly in a fight that should deliver both on excitement and strategic lessons.
Check out what some of our esteemed staff members had to say about the card’s most intriguing matchups!
Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira
Dan Albert: I owe Jan Blachowicz an apology. The signs for his style to beat Israel Adesanya and development of a more mature approach has been an ongoing development. For all Adesanya’s inconsistencies on the feet, Blachowicz’s balance between measured proactivity and reactivity won him that fight. If Adesanya wanted to build via feints, Blachowicz stood his ground, feinted back, and only repositioned as he had to, without pushing for too much. Against someone with Adesanya’s experience and poise, it was an incredibly endearing, impressive showing that you wouldn’t see too often in these upper weight classes in MMA. Although I’d urge caution in believing his victory here will precedentially mean he beats all other fighters at his weight (I would posit that Jiri Prochazka might pose a few questions to Blachowicz’s preferred pace), I do think picking against him will be difficult. Glover Texeira’s current run of finding himself one step close to the brink of brutalizing his man. Teixeira certainly isn’t the athlete, striker, nor even the wrestler he used to be, though it is worth mentioning that Blachowicz has not faced a wrestler in quite awhile. Given the Brazilian’s propensity to be open on entry and Blachowicz’s grown comfort with his pace and timing, there’s no doubt that Teixeira will probably need to get him to the ground at all costs, though most of his success in these many old-man comebacks have been the result of his opponent’s mistakes or lack of wrestling defense. Blachowicz’s wrestling and grappling remains an unknown here, though Teixeira’s route to victory has margins that feel too strict to pull off, heroic willpower or not. Jan Blachowicz by second round knockout.
Ben Kohn: Jan’s clearly become a pretty well put together fighter, for the upper weight divisions especially. Meanwhile, Glover’s recent run, at his age and with the chin he’s got left, has been rather inspiring. His body is clearly not operating at prime capacity, he gets rocked and dropped in virtually every fight, and is grinding out wins against younger, more explosive, yet flawed opponents.
Jan is certainly younger, more explosive, and more durable as well. In recent years, he’s been able to fend off every takedown attempted on his recent run. He works at a pace that is sustainable for him, an important factor considering his pacing issues earlier on in his career, and allows him to build up leads on the scorecards, or getting the finish more often than not. He can wrestle offensively, has solid defense, and is a competent grappler to boot.
This matchup is all wrong for Glover unfortunately. He’s not facing a speed demon in Jan, but Glover is incredibly slow compared to his peers. Glover is going to need to get past Jan’s jab, which is Jan’s best weapon (it’s weird saying that about a LHW) in order to grab hold of Jan. He’s going to take damage, as he has in every recent fight of his. The problem is he can’t afford to take damage against a more patient and skilled fighter than those he’s taken on recently. I know Thiago knocked out Jan, but Glover was looking to grapple, and Thiago isn’t exactly noted for his grappling skills. Glover has been saved by his incredible heart, actually good top game, and his opponents being far below him in skill on the ground.
Jan should be able to stop the takedowns, tag Glover often from range, and put him away within a few rounds. If Glover is going to force Jan’s hand, it could get wild for a bit, but Jan’s chin is the more likely one to hold up. Glover hits hard, but he can’t get hit back. I gotta go with Jan Blachowicz by KO round 1 or 2.
Mateusz Fenrych: The two happy Paw-Paws of MMA face off at last. This is a strange sort of feel-good match up where I wouldn’t feel bad in the case of either fighter winning; both have the sort of career trajectories that Bisping enjoyed, although neither man has pissed off nearly as many people as the Brit did in his heyday.
That said, I do fear for one fighter more than the other here, and predictably, it’s the older one.
Glover is 42 - to Jan’s 38 - and as my colleagues have alluded to, has been showing serious signs of his age in his last few fights; he he as slow as molasses compared to basically everyone, and he’s had to draw on Tyson Fury’s wellspring of recovery powers to see himself to his latest few victories, because he gets domed by everybody he fights now.
Yes, he is tough, but he’s had to be because lately, younger more explosive fighters have been able to prise apart his game enough to get to him- where once he was hailed as one of the best dirty boxers in the game, now his lack of athleticism doesn’t often allow him to get close enough to clinch and smother, until his opponents make a mistake.
Jan, lately, and especially since he fought for the belt, seems like a man who improbably keeps improving into his later fighting years, and composure is one of the main aspects he’s learned. One does not simply… win a fight against Israel Adesanya without keeping one’s wits about them.
He’s smoothed out his game; his Blacho-blitzes are either gone or modified into useful offensive bursts, and he now knows how to pace himself, and make others fight to his pace.
And crucially, he keeps calm and his eyes open in exchanges, allowing him to return fire while minimising the chances of his own chin being spun - see the exchange that won him the fight, and the belt - against Dominick Reyes.
Unfortunately for Glover, I’m predicting Jan to find himself in a shootout early as Glover glacially tries to close distance, keep his head and finish Glover early on in Round 1, via TKO.
Petr Yan vs. Cory Sandhagen
Dan Albert: Petr Yan is one of the most naturally gifted fighters I’ve ever seen compete in MMA. It’s rare to find someone with a clear grasp of process, initiative, and adaptability on top of being tremendously strong in every phase of the fight. It’s frankly obscene to think that such an aggressive, horrifically vicious fighter stands out in a division of genuine standout fighters and yet that is how highly I place the Russian. Aljamain Sterling is an extraordinary fighter and catered his game around beating and exploiting Yan’s weaknesses? Yan smothered him, battered him, and even outwrestled him in an astonishing showing – only to be disqualified for an illegal knee. Anyhow, Jose Aldo and Jimmie Rivera demonstrated how important it is to fight Yan with multilayered striking approaches and positional tactics, though, in spite of their best showings, the Russian still figured them out. To beat Yan, I’d argue you need to have three qualities: Toughness, versatility, and adaptability. And that’s exactly why Cory Sandhagen is such a great opponent for Yan. The Colorado native is ludicrously durable, incredibly game, and capable of handling himself in many phases of the fight. Perhaps the most interesting characteristic at play is how both men will build off their successes at a high work rate – and neither has truly faced an opponent like that specifically. You should expect, especially early, for Sandhagen’s successes to be by touching Yan with his jab during exchanges or around the guard – or willfully applying kicks off the handfight at range (and those flying knees might prove somewhat potent like all Sandhagen fights with knack for timing them). Sandhagen’s defensive liabilities on the backfoot (i.e. willingness to concede to the opponent’s fight at times) and possible weakness in the clinch – against one of MMA’s savvier pressure fighters and clinch technicians – are likely to be what costs him quite a bit here, but he ought to be a live dog in this one. There is one caveat though: Sandhagen is an avid scrambler and, although Yan is plausibly not the game over threat Sterling is on the ground, he is a terrifying top player and the exact sort of fighter to exploit every single hole he can find, including Sandhagen’s propensity to be taken down with the right timing. I’ve no idea how this fight will look in its entirety, but expect fireworks no matter how it goes; these two are incapable of anything less. Petr Yan by unanimous decision.
Mateusz: Ok, now this is a fight to make a TFS analyst tumescent. A disturbing image perhaps, but I’m only stating truths here.
This is a good fight, irrespective of the ins-and-outs of the belt and the state of the championship at the top of bantamweight; while I’d like Yan to rematch Sterling to get that belt back since the first fight ended so absurdly, the prospect of a rematch isn’t THAT compelling since we saw how comprehensively Sterling was being beaten the fuck up by the conclusion of that fight.
Sandhagen meanwhile, has a particular style which might give Yan trouble. Sterling, when he fought Yan, forced a high pace, forced a noisy game that he’s not naturally adept at, and tried to pressure more than he normally does. The key word is ‘forced’, because that is how everything he did looked. It looked contrived, an affectation his coaches had perhaps drilled into him in camp. And it had SOME success early, but not enough, and Sterling exhausted himself with the strain of effort.
Sandhagen meanwhile is very comfortable at creating a noisy fight for his opponent. He has fast, light hands, and they’re capable of working the head and occasionally the body; Yan occasionally has a tendency to defend while rooted, with a static high guard, waiting for his opponent to just… stop. Then he lamps them really fucking hard.
Sandhagen is unlikely to be stumped by this gambit; he understands what a feint is, he knows what a throwaway shot is, and he has the easy comfort of someone who is used to imposing a high pace to be able to actually maintain a useful workrate.
The flipside is, Yan has faced other fighters who were also capable of this, and beaten them to pieces too. Jimmie Rivera and Jose Aldo both threw feints, made adjustments (which worked) and made Yan work extremely hard; Rivera even managed to really trouble Yan by boxing off the backfoot for long-ish stretches, something which Sandhagen is NOT especially adept at, but has perhaps given Yan his most trouble in an MMA fight to date.
The main concern is, Yan is a cold-blooded operator in the cage. He isn’t fazed easily, or at all; he is likely to understand that forcing Sandhagen back is likely to be his key to victory here, the possibility of a Sandhagen flying knee notwithstanding. And Sandhagen hasn’t shown that he’s likely to be able to compete with a strong grappler on the ground before, should Yan manage to feint high and enter low on a takedown - both Alcantara and Sterling showed that grappling is perhaps not Sandhagen’s forté.
What I’m building to, and basically what most analysts covering this fight build to, is that it’s hard to see a consistently applicable path to victory for Sandhagen here. While he has many of the tools that can trouble Yan, Yan is the rare sort of MMA fighter who is perfectly capable of making adjustments mid-fight to exploit areas of weakness, while also featuring the firepower to be able to threaten a finish in all phases of the fight; in open space, in the clinch, off the clinch, and during grappling exchanges.
Corey is capable of adjusting to, but I suspect Yan has enough to make the required adjustments too great for Sandhagen’s toolkit to surmount, and wins by a late TKO, Rnd 4
Ben K: When talking about Sandhagen, it’s hard not to be enamoured by his style of fighting. He’s exciting as all hell, produces some truly ridiculous finishes, and has had his fair few wars as well. Looking at Yan’s record, the only men to make him struggle for any periods of time, in the UFC, are Rivera, Aldo, and Sterling. Of those three, Sandhagen bears almost no resemblance in style or application to any of them. What he excels at is a high output, rangey kickboxing game, with a solid set of tools to discourage recklessly closing the distance or clinching up with him. He definitely fights better when he has space to operate, and is better moving forward than fighting off the back foot. He can hold his own in firefights, is durable, and has no issues with cardio either.
The problem is, Yan doesn’t usually have issues in any of these areas either. He’s arguably one of the best fighters at making in-fight reads and adjustments, building his offensive threats over the course of the fights, and does this all with a high volume and intense pressure game. He’s least comfortable off the back foot, and can be caught standing still, waiting out the barrage to fire back. But he’s rarely taking too much damage in those exchanges, and is highly adept at picking the moments in those exchanges to land a big shot, either backing his opponent off or hurting them. His conditioning is also top shelf too, which means him slowing down is not a realistic outcome either.
Cory, in my opinion of course, needs to employ a game-plan with a lot of volume, particularly making sure to shots into the body whenever possible (at least TRY and slow Yan down). He needs to try and stay off the fence. Sandhagen is a crafty and scrambly grappler, but allowing Yan to shoot takedowns, keep him pinned to the fence, or work his top game is a bad idea, and will put him behind on the scorecards. Sandhagen is usually too willing to back up, but hopefully he can temper those tendencies here. Sandhagen’s unpredictability will also give him time, one would hope, to prevent Yan from gathering the information he usually wants and requires to build his offense, and what makes him such a fantastic fighter as well. If Yan is being overloaded with volume, body work, and offense that makes it difficult for him to predict what’s coming, it’ll likely push Yan to be reliant on his impressive physical traits (power, chin, and pace). That very well could work, but it will give Sandhagen more openings for big moments of his own.
It’s hard for me to pick against Yan, considering how ridiculously good he is. It comes down to what we see from Sandhagen. If he’s going to allow Yan to dictate the pace and location of the fight, he likely gets beaten down over the course of the fight. I don’t know how much emphasis will be placed on making that kind of change for this camp. Sandhagen is incredibly gifted as a fighter, just 6 years pro, and it’s too easy to fall into the trap of relying on those gifts. Against Yan, that’s not an option for consistent success. Based on all these factors, I’m picking Petr Yan via Unanimous Decision. If Sandhagen does those things I’ve talked about though, I would pick him to finish Yan via TKO in round 3.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dan Hooker
Dan Albert: Islam Makhachev has some momentum going, but there’s some basic questions concerning his experience and depth. For instance, it’s fair to say that Makhachev is patient and sound in what he does. He’ll pressure, use his lead land to draw responses, and deny opponents space until he can time reactive takedowns. Still, there remain questions of depth with his work on the feet, namely, despite throwing fundamentally-sound punches, he doesn’t use them in entirely versatile ways. Moreover, I suspect Makhachev’s patience and reactive game will be tested against a forward-moving pressurer with greater depth on the feet. Dan Hooker is inconsistent, though, as he proved in his recent win over Nasrat Haqparast, he generally understands how to apply some layers with what he’s doing. Against Haqparast, he used his opponent’s own lead hand against him, handtrapped him and worked kicks/punches to the body to pressure him consistently. With some modifications, namely avoiding tie ups, Hooker might be able to pose some questions for Makhachev. I don’t believe fighting at a neutral range or on the backfoot will benefit Hooker here, as it invites Makhachev a chance to go forward. I can’t entirely speak on Hooker’s ability on the ground versus Makhachev, though I would posit that the Russian may be posed a surprising amount of trouble here depending upon how Hooker fights. This is a bit of a coinflip based upon so many unknowns with the Russian, though I’ll take a chance and tentatively bet Dan Hooker by second round TKO.
Ben K: Hooker needs to jab, kick the shit out of Makhachev’s body, and force him to fight off the back foot. Reactive shots aren’t Makhachev’s preferred method of getting takedowns. He wants to get the clinch and get those trips and throws. Hooker will have to be able to either stop him in his tracks with big strikes (unlikely as Makhachev is not discouraged easily), or use those gangly ass arms to create space with frames and not allow enough of a connection to allow for reliable takedown attempts by Makhachev.
Problem is, I’m not sure Hooker can pull that off. He’s been pressured plenty of times before, relying on his rangey limbs to keep the distance, rather than enforcing it himself. When his opponents don’t respect that, he’s been able to get clinched up with and worked against the fence. Plenty of people are pointing to his high takedown defense percentage, but realistically it’s not worth looking at. Hooker, for all the wars he’s had, really hasn’t had to deal with strong wrestlers and grapplers. The best wrestler he faced murdered him with punches in the first round. So I will pick the safer pick, Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision.
Damir Ismagulov vs. Magomed Mustafaev (cancelled, but here are Dan’s thoughts!)
Dan Albert: My colleague, Sriram, could best convey Damir Ismagulov’s process, though I think the best way to think about it is that a ‘distraction’ is made, then the actual offense is delivered. In terms of an educated lead hand, Ismagulov’s stands as one of the finest the division offers. He plays with rhythm efficiently and multipurposed. In particular, he’ll deliver threats in full by ruthlessly exploiting body work for force opponents to change levels with him and then snipe them with a brutal right. In terms of manipulating the centerline, he’s excellent at dictating when and where exchanges can and do happen. This extends to his ground game, whereupon he operates with the same mechanical, observative approach. Against athletic force-of-nature, Magomed Mustafaev, he ought to be the favorite here. Mustafaev is an extraordinarily dangerous, opportunistic fighter, though he isn’t a particularly active more than he is a ‘surprising’ archetype of fighter. That is to say, he will work at a slower pace and not do much, but, when he does, it’s dynamic and powerful. Ismagulov is a risk-mitigator though he can be caught on exits and linear retreats by quicker men (I also have questions about it being a necessity that Ismagulov controlling the pace, though this isn’t the fight to ask it). It isn’t exactly a narrow window by Mustafaev, though it might be enough to give Ismagulov a scare. Otherwise, the matchup favors Damir Ismagulov, whom is probable to win via unanimous decision.