Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Teófimo López: The Fight Site Staff Predictions

Credit: Top Rank Boxing

Perhaps the biggest boxing match of the year takes place Saturday, 17th October, and The Fight Site team just had to give their opinions on who would win.

Kyle McLachlan: I have no doubt that this is the best opponent that Lomachenko has faced in his professional career.

Teofimo Lopez is young, he’s quick, he can bang, and he’s actually a really skilled fighter. Don’t look at the shortcomings he apparently showed in the fight with Nakatani: whilst the words coming out afterwards were the opposite of encouraging (Lopez claimed he didn’t want to fight anyone taller than him again) and the performance workmanlike, he blew away all of our expectations with his thunderous knockout of Richard Commey. 

So why should Lomachenko be worried? Or rather, why should Lomachenko fans be worried? 

Simply put, Lopez has the handspeed and timing to land on Lomachenko. Where most fighters cannot put a blip on his radar, Lopez can throw heat seekers that will not show up on the display until they’re smashing through the roof. 

Simply put, Lomachenko will need to be perfect to win this fight. And if anyone’s capable of a perfect performance against a young, hungry world class fighter it’s Vasyl Lomachenko, arguably the most supremely talented boxer of a generation.

He might have to get up off the deck--like he did against Linares, a much lesser fighter than Lopez in my opinion--but I think that Lomachenko will outmove, out-think, and eventually outpunch Teofimo Lopez down the stretch, winning a clear decision in a fight where the great Ukrainian’s greatness is clear by the end of the bout. Lomachenko by decision

Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: Kyle said “but I think that Lomachenko will outmove, out-think, and eventually outpunch Teofimo Lopez down the stretch” that’s interesting, ‘cause even if I agree with the out-think part I disagree strongly on the “outmove” part.

Sounds crazy I know, cause all you hear about Lomachenko is his fantastic footwork. And the man is a pure genius when it comes to footwork, attacking and exiting from different angles, it’s a beautiful thing to watch. But it ain’t the same story when Loma is on the backfoot. If he’s a talented boxe on the backfoot too, Loma ain’t nowhere as great there and that’s where I disagree with the outmove because I believe that Lopez will not back down, he won’t try to counter Loma he’s gonna come at him, fight like the bigger man that he is. If/when he gets outmaneuvered, Lopez will then rough Loma up. Lopez is not a dirty fighter but from what I see and hear from him I know he knows how to kill a king and took inspiration from Duran and Chavez. So, when Loma’s fantastic skill will outbox him, Lopez will go hard and rough.

On the inside it’s gonna be very very interesting to see how he does. Lopez power has been talked about a lot (rightfully so) but he’s a very skilled boxer already. He's defensively sound and fights after fights he transitions better and faster from defense to offense. Enough to oubox the outboxing king ? No. But Enough not to look lost in there and actually for once giving real adversity to Loma. I also think we overplay a lot  the “Loma ain’t a lightweight” narrative. Yes, he’s not the biggest 135lber in the world but Teofimo won’t look that much bigger next to him. So, it’s one of those fights where I think people are gonna be surprised by Teofimo boxing skills but also surprised by Loma’s physicality. At the end, I don’t think Teo can go 12 rounds with Loma without losing the decision. He would fade in the later rounds and would lose a decision. I don’t think he can keep that level of focus for 36 minutes.

What I believe though, is that Teo has enough talent, power, confidence, skills, self belief and killer instinct to shock the world and upset the king inside of four rounds. Highlight reel knockout, the takeover. Teofimo Lopez by Knockout. 

Taylor Higgins: This is the biggest test of Loma’s professional career; there’s more at stake than just belts here, this is about legacy. Loma may be more skilled, but we’ve already seen that his size disadvantage at 135lbs has bridged the gap between him and his opponents somewhat. 

We might well see a changing of the guard on Saturday night. López’s explosiveness and power, coupled with the fact that Loma has been out of the ring for well over a year, makes me think that a KO victory for the young upstart is very much a possibility.

That being said I’m leaning towards a Loma masterclass, with one of the main reasons being that I trust Anatoly Lomachenko to implement a strong game-plan much more than I do López Sr. What I’ve seen the López camp working on isn’t necessarily encouraging, and with Loma seemingly taking this fight personally I think it may bring the best out of him.

The key for López is to punch with Loma and time him with a right hand, so Loma can’t afford to get complacent like he did against Linares. But the fact that he works behind the lead shoulder leaves him susceptible to being stepped around, and I think Loma should have a field day turning López and working the body. López isn’t really the type of fighter to let his hands go a lot either - he tends to throw big shots in isolation - and I think Loma will scramble his timing with feints.

Loma will be walking a tightrope throughout, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see López pull it off, but for now I think ‘the takeover’ might just be put on hold Saturday night. I’m gonna go for Loma by UD. I could see a late stoppage in the championship rounds if Loma starts to wear his man down, but considering López’s size I think he’ll have the durability to finish the fight.

Matt Gioia: Is this a little too much, too soon for the Brooklyn-born fighter? Maybe. Teofimo’s ability to stay on the front foot combined with his power, should trouble the Ukranian. This is not a glass cannon situation like Linares nor someone who relies on controlling the distance and pace like Rigondeaux, therefore I believe Lomachenko will appear more hesitant than expected in the early going. However, I do not believe that Teofimo will be able to put the Ukranian out and Lomachenko will be able to build on as the fight goes on, forcing Teofimo on the backfoot. I’m picking Lomachenko in what should be a hell of a fight. 

Ollie Raderecht: I’m essentially in complete agreement with Taylor and Kyle here. It’s been a long time since the result of a Lomachenko fight hasn’t felt like an inevitability. Prior to Teofimo Lopez’s blowout of Richard Commey — a very capable world-level operator — I would have confidently picked Loma to defeat the young Honduran-American. However, that victory made it clear that there isn’t a more dangerous opponent in the lightweight division out there for Lomachenko. For an undersized lightweight with well over a year since he last fought, Loma couldn’t be taking a bigger risk without moving up another weight class. Of course, the same can be said about Teofimo López: a newly-crowned champion taking on arguably the best fighter in the world at the age of 23.

Immediately after Top Rank announced the huge lightweight unification, I instinctively picked Lomachenko, but the more thought I’ve given it, the less a Teofimo López win would surprise me. After all, Teo’s a genuinely world class, potentially even elite fighter with a clear advantage in power and size. In addition, I like that he’s spoken about pushing Loma onto the back-foot and bullying the smaller man. Unfortunately for him, he’s up against, in my opinion, the most astute technician and potent offensive machine on the planet.

I have little doubt that Teo’s size will be able to somewhat bridge the gap in class and experience, but ultimately I think Loma’s the fighter with the more reliable route to victory. I think the Ukrainian will be able to step around López’s bladed stance, rip up the body (which will sap Teo’s power), and turn the puncher inside out. I predict a cautious start from Loma, given the explosive danger he’s faced with; if Teo doesn’t make a mark early on, it will quickly become Loma’s fight to lose, and Teo’s lack of big-fight experience may show. I think there’s some value on López to pull off the upset (by stoppage), and I’m giving him a better chance of beating Loma than any prior victim of the Ukrainian’s. Having said that, it’s easy to overplay a puncher’s chance due to the ever-present sense of danger, and I’m sticking with Lomachenko by unanimous decision.

Lukasz Fenrych: Teofimo Lopez is indeed, as the others have said, the most threatening opponent Loma has faced in some time, and maybe ever. He’s big, very powerful, fast and skilled, particularly good at disguising his right hand so an opponent can’t read what he’ll throw until very late. He’s also good defensively, with good defensive head movement and a solid appreciation of correct distance even when at his most aggressive. He certainly does have a chance of catching Lomachenko with something, and if he does it could be over fast. There is also the perhaps slightly cop-out but nevertheless true caveat that fighters often raise their game for Lomachenko and Lopez, being a young and still developing fighter, has more scope for that than most, so he could have tools in the bag he simply didn’t have before.I think, however, that Teo has problems here. The first is something Taylor mentioned, that he tends to move quite narrow, behind his shoulder. That’s quite a good way to fight normally, but Walters was excellent at this yet against Lomachenko it ultimately meant he spent more time than a more squared-up fighter resetting back once Loma circled around him. Added to this his movement is, while perfectly solid by normal standards, slightly linear and occasionally just a little bit stompy (in that there can be a pause between one movement and the next). 

The third and I think biggest issue is that, unless he’s seriously tidied it up during his time off, Lopez tends to overload on almost every single one of his power punches, and needs a fraction of a second to reset himself. It’s tiny, a problem so small that against most fighters it wouldn’t even be noticed, but in this fight it means he’s leaving the best step-around fighter of his generation the opportunity, every time Teo misses a big punch, to step around him without being contested. It also means that Lopez struggles to build combinations in layers or crowd an opponent for an extended period of time while throwing, and if that proves true it’ll make that proposed gameplan difficult.  I agree that early on Lomachenko will fight cautiously and perhaps even a little slowly, but as time goes on and especially if Lopez bites on his traps and feints (something that would reduce the threat of those unexpected, disguised shots of Teo’s), I think he’ll warm up and start taking the chances he’s offered to circle round, leather Teo’s body and walk him onto headshots as he turns. I will therefore go out on a limb here and predict Lomachenko by late TKO